Will this time be different?

The crypto market has had a roller coaster ride this year with highs and lows, but there are some blockchain projects looking to change the game. The question is: Can they really?

The “will this time be different quotes” is a question that many ask. There are no guarantees, but there are some things that can help you with your confidence.

Analysts in both crypto and regular markets have seen some alarming parallels between the current drop and the one triggered by pandemic hysteria in March 2020.

The key issue is whether this is the start of a wider slump or whether there will be a huge bounce-back, similar to what happened in 2020, when crypto and stock markets went on a lengthy bull run.

Anthony “Pomp” Pompliano, a podcaster and creator of The Pomp Letter, is a permabull, tweeting on May 18 that “Bitcoin is up 340 percent from March 1, 2020, when one Bitcoin cost roughly $8,545”.

Since March 1, 2020, Bitcoin has increased by 340 percent.

Only one asset stood out among the pack as central banks throughout the globe depreciated their currencies at an unprecedented pace. Bitcoin is a digital currency that protects billions of people from irrational monetary policies.

May 17, 2022 — Pomp (@APompliano)

Raoul Pal, the CEO of investing company Real Vision, is one of many who thinks Bitcoin markets have been drawing a pattern that resembles the March 2020 meltdown.

Pal highlighted in his May 13 episode of Raoul Pal Adventures in Crypto that Bitcoin (BTC) may have “shot straight down” to the bottom of the present wedge formation and is now in a range that would ultimately lead to another price increase with the negative price action last week. He said,

“In March 2020, we had precisely that type of trend.”

Many assets, including Bitcoin, were panic-sold on March 12, 2020, as investors worried about the effect of the COVID-19 pandemic and worldwide lockdowns on the market. According to CoinGecko, Bitcoin plunged 45 percent on that day, from $7,935 to $5,142.

In non-inflation adjusted terms, the current collapse in conventional markets has resulted in a loss of $7.6 trillion in market value from the tech-heavy Nasdaq, more than the dot-com bubble and the March 2020 sell-offs combined.

Although the figures are clearly not adjusted for inflation, they are nonetheless astounding in this setting. pic.twitter.com/aHem93mhpo

May 17, 2022 — Mati Greenspan (@MatiGreenspan)

On May 17, the Crypto Fear and Greed Index fell to 8, the lowest level since March 2020.

#Crypto fear & greed index is at 8 out of 100.

Since the COVID-19 accident in March 2020, this is the lowest number. pic.twitter.com/jKVTcjrXV1

May 17, 2022 — Michaal van de Poppe (@CryptoMichNL)

Financials, real estate, and technology investments’ 50-day moving average (MA) is close to the extremely oversold levels observed little over two years ago. According to Fidelity Investments statistics, those levels were 0, 0, and 1 in March 2020, compared to 2, 3, and 4 thus far in May. Fidelity’s Director of Global Macro Jurrien Timmer described March 2020 as “one of the most oversold setups in the history of the market” in a tweet on May 18.

Will this time be different?

On May 17, managing partner at The Future Fund Gary Black said that Tesla (TSLA) is selling at a 20% discount to analyst target price, the largest since March 2020. “Over the following 12 months, $TSLA increased 660 percent,” he noted.

The last time $TSLA traded at such a deep discount (25%) to the average Street PT ($984) was in March 2020, during the Covid debacle. $TSLA increased by 660 percent in the following year. pic.twitter.com/z2AHe5zkVi source: https://t.co/5fcVwWX78i

May 16, 2022 — Gary Black (@garyblack00)

The S&P 500 Index also displays similarities as it recorded a 52-week low of 3,930 on May 12 only to bounce back to 4,088 by market close on May 17. Chief Market Strategist for financial research firm LPL Research observed in a May 18 tweet that the last time the index had done that was in March 2020.

The S&P 500 just made a 2% gain in two of the past three days coming off of a 52-week low.

When was the last time this happened?

March 2009 and March 2020, respectively.

May 17, 2022 — Ryan Detrick, CMT (@RyanDetrick)

Before traders get too enthusiastic, keep in mind that market circumstances have changed dramatically recently, with increasing inflation and interest rates. Governments responded with enormous price support measures at the time. According to Reuters on May 14, the market’s significant rebound in 2020 would be powered by “historic Fed stimulus.”

Rekt Capital, an analyst and editor of the Rekt Capital Newsletter, tweeted on May 17 that BTC “is approaching a time of outsized potential” based on his research of the Log Channel, which he compares to March 2020. He’s not sure whether we’ve hit rock bottom yet.

Related: Fear & Greed Index hits lowest since March 2020 even as Bitcoin price hits $30.5K

In March 2020, #BTC lost the Log Channel for the last time.

This was also the time when $BTC fell below the blue 200-SMA.

BTC is certainly approaching a moment of outsized potential, according to the Log Channel.

Is it necessary for price to drop below the 200-SMA to truly bottom? #Bitcoin #Crypto pic.twitter.com/hTxwfWYdkH

May 16, 2022 — Rekt Capital (@rektcapital)

Bitcoin is now trading at $30,545, up 1.1 percent over the last 24 hours.

The “this time will be different summary” is a question that has been asked many times. The answer to this question is no, because it has never been different before.

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